# Develop an exponential smoothing forecast (α= 0.5) for February 2016 through

Develop an exponential smoothing forecast (α= 0.5) for February 2016 through January 2017, Assume that your forecast for January 2016 was 130 Calculate the MFE, MAD, and MAPE values for February through December 2016 囲Click the icon to view the time series data Find an exponential smoothing forecast for each period and fill-in the table below (enter your responses rounded to one decimal place) Month Demand 95 79 107 75 84 133 97 120 91 105 80 89 Forecast 130 January 2016 February March April May June July August September October November December The forecast for January 2017 is(Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.) The MFE is 11 . (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place and include a minus sign if necessary) The MAD IS (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.) The MAPE is%. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.)

Exponential smoothing Ft

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$F_{t}=F_{t-1}+\alpha (A_{t-1}-F_{t-1})$

Ft = new forecast

Ft-1 = previous period forecast

At-1 = Previous period actual demand

$\alpha = smoothing constant$

$MFE = \sum_{i=1}^{n}(Actual_{i}-Forecast_{i})/n$

$MAD=(1/n)\sum \left | Actual -Forecast \right |$

$MAPE=\frac{\sum(( \left | Actual-Forecast \right |/Actual)*100)}{n}$

The forecast for january 2017 = 92.8

MFE = -4.0

MAPE = 19.4%

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